Ethereum (ETH‑USD) slipped to around $1,565 on Monday, a drop that leaves the token more than half way down from its August 2025 peak of $4,953. The cryptocurrency is down roughly 32% year‑to‑date, while Bitcoin (BTC‑USD) has fallen about 11% over the same period.
Price pressure and technical backdrop
The daily candle opened at $1,567.83, rose to $1,586.47 and then fell to a low of $1,512.04. All major moving averages sit above the price: the 20‑day EMA at $1,708, the 50‑day EMA near $1,865, the 100‑day EMA around $2,036 and the 200‑day EMA above $2,317. It also sits below its 200‑week trend line, confirming a sustained downtrend.
Resistance clusters near $1,600 and the 20‑day EMA at $1,708. Below $1,500, the next support level is $1,450, with a deeper target around $1,300 if the bearish structure breaks.
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ETH/BTC ratio tells the story
The ETH/BTC ratio, which gauges ether’s value against bitcoin, fell to a 10‑month low of 0.0283. That is more than 35% below its August 2025 high and well under the 200‑week moving average. When the ratio slides, bitcoin retains more of its value in a joint sell‑off, leaving ether to bleed faster. Recent 24‑hour moves showed ether down about 7.5% versus bitcoin’s 5% decline.
Institutional flow imbalance
US spot ethereum ETFs recorded 17 consecutive days of net outflows through early June, totaling roughly $708 million. The outflow streak is the longest since the products launched.
On‑chain signals of accumulation
Despite the flow‑driven weakness, on‑chain data shows long‑term holders accumulating ether. Since late February, the metric tracking mid‑to‑long‑term holder activity has stayed positive, and about 475,000 ETH left major exchanges in early June, pushing exchange balances to a multi‑year low of roughly 8.3% of total supply.
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More than 30% of ether is now staked, removing a sizable portion of tradable supply. This supply squeeze could amplify price moves if demand returns, but it does not currently offset the bearish pressure from institutional outflows.
Market sentiment and momentum
The 14‑day RSI hovers just below the oversold threshold at 29.3, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 18, indicating extreme fear. Both metrics suggest that downside momentum may be stretched.
What lies ahead?
If ether can hold the $1,500–$1,512 zone on a daily close, the next target is the $1,600 resistance band and the EMA. A decisive break below that zone would open the path toward $1,450 and potentially $1,300 if the broader bearish structure fails.
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Any upside will probably need a catalyst—such as a return of ETF inflows, a successful rollout of the delayed “Glamsterdam” upgrade, or a broader risk‑on shift in crypto markets.
Ethereum remains the most under‑performing major crypto asset.
